Spain's climate around 2055: the north stays mild
Most people choose a place in Spain by today's weather. But a home bought now will be lived in through the 2040s and 2050s. We looked up Spain's official climate projections for all 333 towns of 25,000 or more. Three questions: how hot do summers get, do the nights still cool down, and does the rainy north stay rainy?
Summers: every region warms, the north the least
Around 2055 the average August afternoon in the four northern regions (Galicia, Asturias, Cantabria and the Basque Country) is projected at 24.2 °C to 27.0 °C, still 5.9 °C cooler than an August afternoon in the Madrid area today. In the hot interior and south (Andalusia, Murcia, Extremadura, Castilla-La Mancha, Madrid) it is 33.6 °C to 35.9 °C. The north also warms slightly less: +0.7 °C to +1.0 °C over the next thirty years, against +1.0 °C to +1.3 °C inland.
Average August high, by region (°C)
Nights: where summers really become hard
Heat is easier to live with when the night cools down. A “warm night” here is one that stays at 20 °C (68 °F) or above. Along the Mediterranean (Valencia, Catalonia, the Balearics, Murcia, Andalusia) towns already have 57–65 such nights a year, and around 2055 73–80: two to three months of nights without relief. The northern regions stay at 2–7 a year.
Warm nights (20 °C / 68 °F or more) per year, by region (nights)
Does the rainy north stay rainy? Mostly, yes
Today the northern regions have 124–127 rainy days a year (1 mm or more); around 2055 the projection is 113–117. That is still two to three times the Mediterranean coast (37–48). The days that disappear are mainly in summer: summer rain in the north falls by 22–29%, while winter rain hardly changes (0–2%). So northern summers get a little drier and sunnier, and the green, wet winters stay.
The models agree on the direction: every one of the 11 models projects fewer rainy days for every Galician town (from 2 to 28 fewer a year). Rain projections are less certain than temperature projections, so take the size of the change with care.
Rainy days (1 mm or more) per year, by region (days)
And the sunshine?
There is no official projection of sunshine hours. The nearest measure, the amount of sunlight reaching the ground, changes very little: 0.1–1.6% in the northern regions. The grey winters stay grey: in December the northern towns get a median 2.9 hours of sun a day, against 5.2 on the Mediterranean, and the projections do not close that gap.
What this could mean if you are choosing now
The north offers what the rest of Spain is losing: summer afternoons in the mid-20s and nights that cool down. The price is rain and dark winters. So far people have not followed the climate. From 2015 to 2025 the population of the larger northern towns changed by +1.8% (Galicia), -2.0% (Asturias), +1.2% (Cantabria), +2.3% (Basque Country), while it grew +10.4% in the Madrid region, +11.5% on the Balearics and +8.8% and +8.5% in the Valencian Community and Catalonia. Prices differ within the north: the median appraised price is 1,451 €/m² in Asturias, 1,557 €/m² in Galicia, 2,280 €/m² in Cantabria, 2,806 €/m² in the Basque Country, against 1,954 €/m² for all 333 places. Whether the north becomes popular is something no climate model can tell you, but on these numbers it is the part of Spain whose summers age best.
The coolest summers on the mainland around 2055
| Place | Region | August high today | Around 2055 | Warm nights 2055 | Rainy days, today → 2055 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avilés | Asturias | 23.4 °C | 23.3 °C | 7 | 128 → 118 |
| A Coruña | Galicia | 23.4 °C | 24.0 °C | 3 | 127 → 116 |
| Narón | Galicia | 23.2 °C | 24.0 °C | 2 | 127 → 114 |
| Gijón | Asturias | 23.3 °C | 24.1 °C | 11 | 122 → 113 |
| Santander | Cantabria | 23.4 °C | 24.1 °C | 13 | 125 → 115 |
| Arteixo | Galicia | 23.3 °C | 24.1 °C | 0 | 127 → 115 |
| Ferrol | Galicia | 23.3 °C | 24.2 °C | 3 | 127 → 114 |
| Siero | Asturias | 24.5 °C | 24.2 °C | 2 | 125 → 139 |
| Langreo | Asturias | 24.5 °C | 24.2 °C | 1 | 125 → 138 |
| Mieres | Asturias | 24.5 °C | 24.2 °C | 1 | 125 → 116 |
| Oleiros | Galicia | 23.4 °C | 24.6 °C | 1 | 127 → 115 |
| Piélagos | Cantabria | 24.0 °C | 24.7 °C | 7 | 124 → 114 |
Want your own list? On the compare page, use the sliders “August average high around 2055” and “Warm nights around 2055”, or rank places with “Cool summers around 2055”.
How we did this
Projections: Escenarios-PNACC 2024, Spain's official climate scenarios for its National Adaptation Plan, from the AdapteCCa viewer (CC-BY 4.0). Temperature indices: 11 CMIP6 global models regionalised by AEMET (ESD-RegBA); rain: the same models regionalised by CSIC (DeepESD); sunlight: EURO-CORDEX regional models (CMIP5, RCP4.5). All use the middle emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5) and the change from 2011-2040 to 2041-2070, added to today's 1991-2020 station averages. A projection is not a forecast: it depends on how much the world emits, and individual models differ (each place page shows their range). Population: INE. Prices: Ministry of Housing appraisals. Built 2026-10-18.